AJAX - Markets Abhor a Vacuum
CNET has an article discussing the renaissance and how AJAX may be used in the future, leading to a possible destruction of desktop applications. I love the media. Anyway, Charles Fitzgerald of Microsoft is quoted:
"It's a little depressing that developers are just now wrapping their heads around these things we shipped in the late 20th century,"
I can agree with that. None of this stuff is brand new. In the same article, David Mendels of Macromedia is quoted:
"It is really, really, really hard to build something like Gmail and Google Maps,"
"Google hired rocket scientists--they hired Adam Bosworth, who invented DHTML when he was at Microsoft. Most companies can't go and repeat what Google has done."
I think this is total crap. The article ends with a quote from David Temkin of Laszlo:
"The successors to Word and Excel and Powerpoint are not going to be written this way. It's just not going to happen."
This seems like a strange thing for a rich Internet application framework vendor like Laszlo to say. Even assuming that David was not quoted out of context, the statement is wrong.
Software products are mainly driven by markets. Users in those markets have needs and software is created to meet those needs. If your company makes a desktop OS, you'll probably make software that runs on the OS. At least until the users' needs change and the market forces you to re-evaluate how you build your software. How quickly you change the way you build your software depends on many factors, including the strength of the market forces and the cost of rewriting your existing codebase.
By the way, writing any kind of software application can be really, really, really hard. There is a difference between building a web-site and writing a web-application. And yes, I do have an aerospace engineering degree. Desktop or web, it's still hard.
My point is that if there was enough of a user need for presentation software that could be run from anywhere, the next version of PowerPoint would be built using an AJAX-like framework. It probably would not be Microsoft that builds it. They have an existing codebase that makes it costly to do such a thing. If PowerPoint was a product of the MSN division, things might be different. IMO, that group is doing some of the best new work at Microsoft.
John Gossman has a couple posts that also stirred me up. In general, John is definitely worth reading. He agrees with Temkin that Office will not be rewritten using AJAX, but attributes some of that to browser limitations. Many of those limitations are gone, including the advanced graphics issue he brings up. SVG and VML (in IE) do some pretty cool things. More than enough to drive a decent PowerPoint/Excel replacement.
Robert Scoble brings up offline usage in a recent post. Again, this limitation can be overcome. Since IE 5, web applications could use the userData behavior to store data locally. Together with client-side XML/XSLT, its pretty effective. I am sure Mozilla/Firefox has something similar.
The replacement does not need to have all the features of the desktop version. Successful web-based applications (like email, bug-tracking, ERP systems, RSS aggregators and blogging tools) have shown that users are willing to give up some of the "niceties" of a desktop version for the benefits of web-based deployment.
Markets (and users) abhor vacuums. If a web-based PowerPoint vacuum exists, some software vendor will fill it.